“Outlook uncertain” according to BMF Forecast Report

The latest Forecast Report from the BMF (Builders Merchants Federation), reveals an upward adjustment to 2.5% in the baseline forecast for sales of building materials in 2025, due to positive growth rates in the first half of the year.

According to the report, the first six months of 2025 showed the first signs of an improving market, with a 1.9% value growth for the first half of the year.

BMF CEO John Newcomb commented: “Despite this relatively positive start to the year, there remains a sense that we should, by now, be doing better. The key thing that is missing is ‘confidence’. When consumers and businesses feel optimistic about the economy, they are more likely to spend and invest, fuelling growth and job creation. Economic uncertainty dampens confidence and holds back growth, and we have been in this cycle for some time.

“Our members would certainly appreciate confidence-boosting stimulus measures such as lower borrowing costs, planning reform or wider support for housebuilding, particularly for SME contractors.

“Despite these concerns, we recognise that demand was stronger than expected in the first half of 2025, even when confidence was low. Conditions remain tough, but as long as there are no further shocks in the Autumn Budget, we believe the market is likely to meet the forecasted growth rate for the year.

“ Uncertainty remains a key theme, however. Looking ahead to 2026, our forecasted baseline year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% is tempered by lower and upper forecast scenarios of 1.2% and 3.7%.”