Don’t shoot the messenger…

  I have a mind to strike thee ere thou speak’st”.
“Gracious madam, I that do bring the news made not the match”.

The itinerary for next month’s NMBS Conference in Benidorm (I can read a map, deal with it) came through to my inbox last week. Lots of lovely interesting stuff to get one’s teeth into, I thought. And I was especially pleased to see that the CPA’s Economics Director Dr Noble Francis will return to give us the lowdown on the economic downs and ups.

Every Shakespearean tragedy needs its rude mechanicals for comic relief, but I rather fear that the undeniably erudite Dr Francis might have his work cut out to lighten the mood. I received the CPA press release about the latest forecasts yesterday, and posted the story, having read the accompanying forecast document. I rather wish I hadn’t.

The link to the full report is online here , but, in the meantime, the headline numbers are: • Construction output falls by 2.5% in 2026 • Private housing output falls by 7.0% in 2026 • Private housing repair, maintenance and improvement falls by 8.0% in 2026 • Infrastructure output rises by 3.2% in 2026 • Commercial output falls by 3.7% in 2026

Grim. Especially so when compared to 2024 and 2025 when construction output rose by – steady now – 02% and 1.8% respectively. When you realise how hard won those rises were, to think that they are likely to get obliterated, and then some, in the next couple of years, it’s sobering. It’s not as though the CPA is being particularly gloomy, either. The Mineral Products Association has warned there is “no sign of recovery” in UK construction demand, with sales of concrete, aggregates and mortar falling again in the first quarter of 2026. Ready-mixed concrete sales dropped by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, primary aggregates by 0.8% and mortar by 2.0%. It’s apparently especially bad in London, which is often an outlier in these sorts of figures. Not right now: annual ready-mixed concrete volumes in London over the past 12 months are 47% lower than in 2022.

There is, if you look carefully, a faint glimmer of light in the infrastructure sector, but that’s mostly huge projects, already planned or started, and not really much use to my local independent builder’s merchant.

The outlook is particularly hard to predict because no-one knows what is going to happen with the Middle East conflict, what effects whatever happens will have, or how long it all might last. It’s so uncertain that the CPA has even come up with two scenarios, which, for clarity, they are terming the Upper Scenario and the Lower Scenario.

In the Upper Scenario: UK economic activity rises by 1.1% in 2026, thanks to consumers spending instead of saving, leading to sustain spending by utilising savings despite rising prices. Total construction output remains flat, but rises by 2.2% in 2027. Private housing output falls by 3.0% in 2026, but government policy stimulus boosts demand for 2.0% growth in 2027. Private housing RM&I output falls by 5.0%, but remains flat in 2027 as said government stimulus leads to more home moves and consequent improvement activity.

In the Lower Scenario: UK economy falls into recession due to a spike in inflation. Construction output falls by 4.7% in 2026, in response to sharp rises in prices, as well as a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. Private housing output falls by 10.0% in 2026 thanks to a ‘perfect storm’ of mortgage rate rises, falling homebuyer confidence and declining demand. This of course also impacts private housing RM&I output, which falls by 10.0% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, thanks to inflation hitting consumer confidence for discretionary, non-essential spending.

If anyone has learned how to read a crystal ball, perhaps they could pop it in their luggage and bring it out to Spain. Otherwise, good luck Noble, with finding something to cheer us up out of that lot. Still, I have no doubt that if anyone can, it’s you.