Builders Merchants Journal – BMJ Publishing to Builders Merchants and the UK merchanting industry for more than 95 years
The latest Plumbing & Heating Merchant Index (PHMI) report, published by MRA research in March, shows like-for-like Q4 2025 value sales, adjusted to remove the impact of trading days, were +0.7% higher than the same period in 2024. Like-for-like volume sales decreased by -3.3%.
With no difference in trading days, the unadjusted total value sales were also +0.7% higher, with volumes down -3.3% and prices up +4.1%.
Managing director of MRA Research Mike Rigby, comments: “The year 2025 started well but ended in disappointment with business and consumer spending paralysed by dire warnings about the Autumn Budget. In the event the Budget’s bark was worse than its bite, but delayed sales leave a hole. Poor weather also blighted building sites during the final weeks of the year and into 2026.
“The ONS’s latest construction output report recorded a disappointing end to the year for construction with Q4 output shrinking -2.1% compared to Q3. Private new housing (-3.6%) was the main negative contributor. The Construction Products Association duly downgraded both its forecast construction output for 2026 (from +2.8% to +1.7%) and its forecast for private housebuilding (from +4.0% to +1.5%). Private housing RMI was revised down to -1.0%.
“With unemployment climbing 5.2% climbing and inflation still rising +3.0% in the 12 months to January, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), it’s not surprising that consumer confidence has taken a hit. The latest Consumer Confidence Index for February is down 3 points with the biggest declines in how people feel about their personal finances (-4 points for both the last and next 12 months). The Major Purchase Index, a barometer for discretionary spending on RMI projects, also fell 4 points.
“Before the recent US Israeli war on Iran, economists were forecasting a fall to the Bank of England’s target rate of +2% sometime this year and two more rate cuts. But as oil, gas, and energy prices take off again, and supplies including critical products like fertiliser are reduced, inflation is turning up again. How much depends on how widely war spreads and how long it lasts. If only Governments did what they promised! The UK Government promised growth but introduced a slew of anti-growth policies, while President Trump’s US Government promised peace and prosperity but is picking fights with friend and foe.”
