Builders Merchants Journal – BMJ Publishing to Builders Merchants and the UK merchanting industry for more than 95 years
The BMF (Builders Merchants Federation) Winter Forecast Report confirms a stagnant market for building materials sales in the second half of 2025, and does not expect significant growth in the first quarter of 2026.
After a promising start to the year, Q3 2025 proved challenging for building materials sales, prompting the BMF to lower its 2025 annual growth forecast from 2.5% to 1.4%.
The BMF’s current baseline annual growth forecast for 2026 has also been downgraded from 3.1% to 2.3%, with the latest Forecast tempered by lower and upper forecast scenarios of 1.2% and 3.7% – the latter requiring government stimulus to reignite key market areas, including housebuilding and domestic RMI.
John Newcomb, CEO of the BMF, commented: “Following a glimmer of growth in building material sales in the first six months of the year, the positive trend stalled, and the forecasted turnaround for the third quarter of the year failed to materialise. In particular, the housing market slowed in the third quarter, with housebuilders adopting a cautious approach ahead of the Autumn Budget, which ultimately fell short of delivering the stimulus required to reignite the housing market.
“In addition, both housing RMI and the new housing market – key areas for builders’ merchant sales – have been negatively impacted by the continued fall in consumer confidence. The Bank of England could help to unlock these markets in 2026 by supporting a significant reduction in interest rates.
“Government intervention is needed to really get these sectors moving. We need to see incentives for first-time buyers, delivery of the Social and Affordable Housing Programme, more action to free up brownfield land, as well as the publication of the long-awaited Warm Homes Plan and Future Homes Standard.”
